Thursday, September 5, 2013
New paper in Nature Climate Change says IPCC uses statistical techniques 'out of date by well over a decade'
A new paper published in Nature Climate Change finds, "Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in [IPCC] assessments of climate change" and that "The forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the US National Climate Assessment Report will not adequately address this issue. Worse still, prevailing techniques for quantifying the uncertainties that are inherent in observed climate trends and projections of climate change are out of date by well over a decade. Modern statistical methods and models could improve this situation dramatically." The authors recommend, "Including at least one author with expertise in uncertainty analysis on all chapters of IPCC and US national assessments" and that the IPCC "Replace qualitative assessments of uncertainty with quantitative ones." A prime example of this would be the ludicrous IPCC claim that it is "very likely" man is the cause of climate change, a claim that very likely would not hold up if subject to modern statistical analysis of uncertainty.
Posted by MS at 10:46 AM