Monday, September 1, 2014

From the Annals of Failed Global Warming Predictions: Global cooling

WUWT has a post today

"Great moments in climate prediction: ‘World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns’"
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That now failed 2009 headline is from Duncan Clark in the Guardian.
Guardian_5yrs_warming
see humorous and 100% accurate rebuttal at WUWT
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The authors of this alleged "skeptic silencing" paper were Judith Lean [of "Judithgate" fame] and David Rind of NASA GISS, who very confidently predicted global temps would warm 0.15C plus or minus 0.03C [i.e. warm from 0.12C-0.18C] during the five year period 2009 to 2014.

The trend in observations from the following datasets show that over the five years 2009-2014, the globe instead cooled by:
HadCRU4 surface data: -0.044C 
RSS satellite data: -0.09C 

Further, the paper predicts there will be a "pause" in warming due to low solar activity for the subsequent 5 years from 2014-2019 with a temperature change of only 0.03C +/- 0.01.

Ironically, this paper which was claimed by the Guardian rag in 2009 to "silence global warming skeptics" was not only wrong about the predicted anthropogenic warming, but also [possibly correctly] predicts that low solar activity will lead to a "pause" in warming from 2014-2019. 

Graph from Lean & Rind paper with predicted warming from the NASA GISS climate model shown in top graph to 2014 [labeled as "A"] and to 2019 [labeled as "B"]. The globe actually cooled 2009-2014. Lean & Rind predicted a "pause" in warming will occur 2014-2019 due to low solar activity. 

2 comments:

  1. http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf

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  2. More on author Judith Lean's prior deceptions

    http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Lockwood_and_Frolich_Review.pdf

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