Saturday, September 6, 2014

Multiple papers ignored by IPCC document the effect of natural ocean oscillations on climate

Google translation from german (apologies) plus light editing, from Die Kalte Sonne:
IPCC co-founder Bert Bolin had already known the climatic role of the ocean cycles very well
Die Kalte Sonne
A common argument of the IPCC proponents against ocean cycles and their relevance as an important climate factor is that the modern temperature measurements date back only two to three 60-year cycles. Thus, one can not prove the quasi-cyclic nature. This is a nice attempt, but not if considered in light of the supporting literature. Several research teams have reconstructed the various ocean cycles which can now be traced back far into the past. The quasi-cyclic nature is therefore well documented and the attempt to defend the climate alarm goes nowhere. Below we take a look at the latest work on the subject. Additional literature is also mentioned in our book "The cold sun".
Reconstruction of ocean cycles in the past
Deng et al. 2013 : Reconstruction of the PDO since 1853 using corals in the South China Sea
Olafsdottir et al. 2013 : Reconstruction of the AMO and NAO in Iceland for the past 3000 years
Svendsen et al. 2014: reconstruction of the AMO for the last 200 years
Chylek et al. 2012: reconstruction of the AMO for the last 660 years based on ice cores 
excerpt from the Executive Summary: A longer time scale AMO component of 45-65 years, Which HAS BEEN CLEARLY seen in the 20th century SST data, is detected only in central Greenland ice cores . We find a significant difference in between the AMO cycles falling on the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The LIA what dominated by a 20 year AMO cycle with no other decadal or multidecadal scale variability above the noise level. HOWEVER, falling on the MWP preceding- the 20 year cycle what Replaced by a longer scale cycle centered near a period of 43 years with a 11.5 year periodicity Further.
Chiessi et al. 2013: AMO in Brazil during the last 5000 years
Olsen et al. 2012 : NAO the last 5200 years 
excerpt from the Executive Summary: The North Atlantic Oscillation Influences climate in the Arctic region and northern Europe.Reconstructions of circulation patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation from a 5,200-year-long lake sediment record did suggest the atmospheric circulation Responded to significant transitions in Northern Hemisphere climate. See also report in The Hockeyschtick .

Ocean cycles fired heating 1977-1998
A Swedish scientist told us that the IPCC must certainly have known the importance of the ocean cycles in the early phase of his ministry. One of the IPCC's co-founder, who died in 2007, Bert Bolin said to have spoken at a meeting in the establishment phase of the IPCC in the 1980s openly about the 60-year cycle of the ocean cycles. At that time predicted warming Bolin 30 years since the previous 30 years were rather characterized by cooling. The following is the text of the email:
I have heard from a participant at this meeting, with politicians and party Officials, Bolin Explained: The last 30 years we have had a slight cooling. Before 1910-1940 did we had a warming period. Before it did what cooling. It Seems did the temperature is going up and down with a period of 60 years, so it is reasonable to expect the next 30 years did want to be warm. Bolin obviously had some idea of ​​PDO influence on climate already at this time.
30 years heating it then but it was not entirely, but the forecast of the IPCC Bolin was initially planning reliability and credibility among the population. The IPCC would have had a harder many times when he would have been founded around the turn of the millennium, the beginning of the still ongoing temperature plateaus.
Even the art is now becoming increasingly clear that during the heating phase 1977-1998, all is not received with the right things and the alleged power of the CO 2 is to a large extent rather to the account "supporting means", so the warming effect of the ocean cycles. Thus wrote Large & Yeager, 2012 in the Journal of Climate that the warming 1984-2006 of "natural variability" (herewith are probably meant the ocean cycles) was dominated and the long-term climate change played only a minor role.
In March 2014, published research group led by Petr Chylek in the Geophysical Research Letters an important work titled "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate". In it, the authors expect to one-third of global warming 1977-1998 the warming positive phase of the AMO-ocean cycle. The work was extensively discussed on WUWT ( here , here , here ). Excerpt from the abstract:
The anthropogenic effects account for about two Thirds of the post-1975 global warming with one third being due to the positive phase of the AMO.
End of May 2014 put a team around Jacques Servain in the journal Climate Dynamics and interpreted according to the warming from 1977 to 1998 in the Atlantic also associated with the warm phase of the AMO.

Ocean cycles prevent further warming since 1998
Gradually it dawns experts also that probably the current warming pause the cooling phase of the ocean cycles is owed. We had already reported several times at this point:

Even the PIK Potsdam Institute mitlerweile recognizes the cooling role of the AMO in connection with the current Erwärmungshiatus (seeSchleussner et al. 2,014 ).
Case studies for climate-influencing effect of ocean cycles are not lacking. In the book of Salomon Kroonenberg ("The thousand-year cycle") is a chapter on the development of water level of the Caspian Sea, which is influenced mainly by the 60-year-old PDO / AMO cycle. The same is also in the Great Salt Lake in Utah is the case, as Wang et al. 2010 documented. And also the climate of Myanmar was under the PDO control, asD'Arrigo and Ummenhofer (2014) were able to show. In February 2014 wrote Mendoza et al. in the journal Atmospheric Research, the climate in Mexico is also controlled by the PDO, with probably the changing Cloud cover plays an important role. In Germany could Lohmann et al. (2013)demonstrate ocean cycles in cave stalactites. The 60-year-old AMO and NAO-cyclicality also appeared in Italy in a snow statistics for the past 300 years, as in Enzi et al. 2014 is read. And the deep-water temperatures in the Arctic Svalbard behaved cyclically, conducted by the NAO ( Ferré et al. 2,012 ).

Possible solar influence on ocean cycles
There is much evidence that the 60-year rhythm of the ocean cycles pulsates freely independently in the climate system. However, there seems to be such studies indicate some interactions with the solar activity and perhaps the planetary orbits. How could Harry van Loon and Gerald Meehl 2014 show in the Geophysical Research Letters, that it does play a role in climate, whether the PDO and NAO occurs in phase with the 11-year solar cycle or in phase opposition.
In February 2014, published group to Mads Knudsen Faurschou in Nature Communications, a work that describes a clear influence of the AMO by solar activity. Here is the short version:
Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Represents a significant driver of Northern Hemisphere climate, but the forcing mechanisms pacing the AMO REMAIN poorly be understood. Here we use the available proxy records to investigate the influence of solar and volcanic forcing on the AMO over the load ~ 450 years. The evidence did Suggests external forcing played a dominant role in pacing the AMO after termination of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1400-1800), with at instantaneous impact on mid-latitude sea-surface Temperatures did spread across the North Atlantic over the ensuing ~ 5 years. In contrast, the role of external forcing what more ambiguous falling on the LIA. Our study Further Suggests did the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is Important for linking external forcing with North Atlantic sea-surface Temperatures, a conjecture did reconciles two opposing theories Concerning the origin of the AMO.
And Lin et al. 2014 report in a publication in Climate of the Past of a solar influence of the AMO. Previously had Muthers et al. , such interaction interpreted. A solar context, the NAO with the solar activity was of Boberg & Lundstedt 2002 reports.

While it used to always meant the ocean cycles were unpredictable and arbitrary, but it has now recognized that there is a system and forecast possibilities. For the AMO this last set Hazeleger et al. 2013 in the Journal of Geophysical Research tight.
Li et al. 2,013 go in the Geophysical Research Letters even go a step further and developed a temperature forecast for the next 15-20 years based on the NAO and AMO-development. Here is the summary of your work:
NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature Multidecadal variability
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is Characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern Followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate the North Atlantic Oscillation did (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows did the NAO leads Detrended Both the NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates did the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic Processes. An NAO-based linear model is established to predict the NHT THEREFORE, Which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next Decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening did temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.
Did you catch the last sentence of the abstract? The temperature of the northern hemisphere is slightly cool to 2027, as the NAO will weaken.Nothing else stood in 2012 in our book "The cold sun" ...

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for this useful reference. The essence of the question is this:

    Given that:
    1. The net excess of incoming radiation over outgoing radiation has been estimated together with error bars.
    2. Variations in the quantity of incoming radiation has been estimated together with uncertainties.

    Is the variation in incoming radiation sufficient to offset human drivers of warming?

    This question has been addressed by a number of groups.

    For example ten scientists led by Graeme Stephens, including five NASA scientists, showed that the estimated rate of energy imbalance is only a fraction of one percent of the incoming radiation (0.17%) an order of magnitude smaller than the uncertainties in estimation. (Order of magnitude = ten times)

    They stated,

    "The net energy balance is the sum of individual fluxes. The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is large, and amounts to approximately 17 Wm–2. This uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the changes to the net surface fluxes associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Fig. 2b). "

    Kopp and Lean stated in a paper cited by Stephens et al. that short-term variations in TSI can be double (0.34%) the estimated net solar flux stored by the oceans.

    Other NASA scientists have reported similar interannual variances in the main incoming and outgoing radiance components.

    Pamela E. Mlynczak, G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr. Interannual variations of surface radiation budget, 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

    My comment: There is very little empirical support for the theory that the magnitude of AGW is greater than natural variability of the climate system.

    Readers can find further details and references in this blog article: