Tuesday, November 5, 2013

CERN scientist says another Maunder Minimum in solar activity could occur by 2015

Dr. Jasper Kirkby, head of the CLOUD Experiment at CERN in Geneva notes in the video lecture below that if one extrapolates the current lull in solar activity, an extended period of no sunspots similar to the Maunder Minimum could occur by 2015. The Maunder Minimum was responsible for the Little Ice Age and lasted for 70 years. 

Above slide from Dr. Kirby's lecture around 9:50 mark shows reconstructed solar activity over the past 6,000 years. Dr. Kirby's preceding slide in the lecture below shows extrapolated solar activity could reach levels of the Little Ice Age [LIA] within only 2 more years. Also shown are the peaks in solar activity corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period ~1000 years ago, the Roman Warm Period ~2000 years ago, the Egyptian and Minoan Wam Periods ~3000 and 4000 years ago, and the Current Warm Period of the 20th century.


Same reconstructed solar activity cited above by Dr. Kirby: Vonmoos et al 2006 

Jasper Kirkby Head of the CLOUD Experiment - CERN, Geneva. This lecture is part of SFU's 2011 global warming seminar series "Global Warming: A Science Perspective".

Read more at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=414_1315052227#454TUBbgTXPOkpAt.99

H/T Joe Bastardi


  1. This work is in complete agreement with the cooling forecasts made in a series of posts at
    Here is a summary of the forecasts.

    " I have combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.

    Here are the conclusions of those posts.

    1/22/13 (NH)

    1) The millennial peak is sharp - perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming - and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two - 2014/16 -with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
    2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-
    3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 - 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees
    4)The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 - 16 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.

    4/02/13 ( Global)

    1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
    2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
    3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
    4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 - 0.15
    5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 - 0.5
    6 General Conclusion - by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
    7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
    8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial - they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
    9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent - with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario."

    1. Wasn't the CO2 level higher than it is now during the last ice age, due to all the volcanic activity?

  2. Wow! Wow! And, Wow again!
    These findings you have made will not and cannot be ignored for much longer.

  3. Maybe, just maybe, chance is throwing us a bone: AGW is counteracted by solar minimum thus giving us more time to change our carbon addicted way of life.

    1. Maybe, just maybe, CO2 has a trivial effect on climate and we'll realize global cooling is far worse than global warming.

    2. Or maybe, just maybe, all the predictive models up until now have been crap because they ignored solar cycles. Too hard to factor, we'll just leave them out. There's no correlation between CO2 and warming, there's no correlation between your predictive models and temperatures in the troposphere. GIGO

  4. It is the height of arrogance for men to belief that the tiny changes we can make will have a significant impact either way on the warming or cooling of the planet. 99.4% of all the warmth on the earth's surface comes form the sun...if it gets significantly cooler, then so does hte planet. The measly .6% of wrmth that results from everything that happens on the earth's surface (including volcanic activity and geothermal events) is negligible compared to the sun's effects. The facts on the ground are that the planet has been cooling off for a decade or more since the Sunspots maximum in the 90s and the ocean temps are falling. Winters are more harsh and all the dire predictions of coastal flooding, hurricanes increasing in intensity, polar icecaps diminishing, etc. have failed to materialize. Global temps have peaked and are starting to dip significantly. We are dealing with a paradigm shift in climate science and the "Deniers" are the GW fanatics.

  5. Al Gore is going to choke on this.