In a must-read post today by Dr. Judith Curry, she explains why the IPCC attribution claim with 95% confidence that climate change is mostly man-made fails the most basic principles of logic, is unsupportable, that the IPCC and the Gavin's of the world are the parties who are "making things up." Therefore, the meteorologists in this poll who likewise claim to know that most climate change is man-made also fail basic logical analysis and thus this opinion is more political than scientific. The AMS poll confirms that opinions on AGW are to a significant degree driven by political views rather than science:
Full paper available at link
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1029–1040.
Meteorologists' Views About Global Warming: A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members
, Edward Maibach , Sara Cobb
, Gary Rasmussen
NOAA/Office of the Assistant Secretary for Environmental Observation and Prediction, Washington, D.C.Paul Croft
Meteorologists and other atmospheric science experts are playing important roles in helping society respond to climate change. However, members of this professional community are not unanimous in their views of climate change, and there has been tension among members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who hold different views on the topic. In response, AMS created the Committee to Improve Climate Change Communication to explore and, to the extent possible, resolve these tensions. To support this committee, in January 2012 we surveyed all AMS members with known e-mail addresses, achieving a 26.3% response rate (n = 1,854). In this paper we tested four hypotheses—1) perceived conflict about global warming will be negatively associated, and 2) climate expertise, 3) liberal political ideology, and 4) perceived scientific consensus will be positively associated—with 1) higher personal certainty that global warming is happening, 2) viewing the global warming observed over the past 150 years as mostly human caused, and 3) perception of global warming as harmful. All four hypotheses were confirmed. Expertise, ideology, perceived consensus, and perceived conflict were all independently related to respondents' views on climate, with perceived consensus and political ideology being most strongly related. We suggest that AMS should attempt to convey the widespread scientific agreement about climate change [non-sequitur from the poll results!]; acknowledge and explore the uncomfortable fact that political ideology influences the climate change views of meteorology professionals; refute the idea that those who do hold nonmajority views just need to be “educated” about climate change; and continue to deal with the conflict among members of the meteorology community.
I am curious if the low response to the poll (26 %) may be due to threats meteorologists should be fired by NGO organizations if they do not follow the party line that CAGW exists due to carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Jobs are hard to find these days. If I worked for a TV station or government, I would keep my mouth shut on this issue. Therefore, a majority of meteorologists may believe carbon dioxide plays no role in climate change.ReplyDelete
James H. Rust