Saturday, October 4, 2014

New excuse #54 for the "pause" in global warming: 'Global quasi-stationary waves' from natural ocean oscillations

A recent paper published in Nature Climate Change by Kevin "it's a travesty!" Trenberth, et al, finds excuse #54 for the 18+ year "pause" in global warming: "Global quasi-stationary waves in the upper troposphere" due to the negative phase of the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]. 

According to the authors, 

"The Recent Pause In The Rise Of Global Mean Temperatures Are Examined Seasonally. For 1999 To 2012, The Hiatus In Surface Warming Is Mainly Evident In The Central And Eastern Pacific. It Is Manifested As Strong Anomalous Easterly Trade Winds, Distinctive Sea-Level Pressure Patterns, And Large Rainfall Anomalies In The Pacific, Which Resemble The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)."
By Using [lots of fudge factors in a climate] Model, The Large Negative Anomalous Latent Heating Associated With The Observed Deficit In Central Tropical Pacific Rainfall Is Shown To Be Mainly Responsible For The Global Quasi-Stationary Waves In The Upper Troposphere. The Wave Patterns In Turn Created Persistent Regional Climate Anomalies, Increasing The Odds Of Cold Winters In Europe. Hence, Tropical Pacific Forcing Of The Atmosphere Such As That Associated With A Negative Phase Of The PDO Produces Many Of The Pronounced Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies Observed Globally During The Hiatus."
In the conclusion, the authors state,
"These have been recognized as a dominant mode of natural interannual variability associated with ENSO, but here we focused on the inter-decadal variability that has become strongly evident recently through its manifestation as a pause in the rise of global mean temperatures. Accompanying the recent negative phase of the PDO has been striking changes in tropical and subtropical winds and ocean currents, with profound effects on OHC and sea level. Some of these aspects appear to be unique to the past decade and raise questions about whether natural internal variability itself is being altered by climate change."
It's a travesty to now claim, as Trenberth et al now appear to say, that natural variability itself is no longer natural and "being altered by" AGW! Such are the depths to which the AGW religion has sunk.

Side question: Do Trenberth et al Think That Capitalizing Every Single Word In Their Abstract Makes It Look More Definitive And Sciencey?

Full paper:

Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming
Nature Climate Change 4, 911–916 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2341
Factors involved in the recent pause in the rise of global mean temperatures are examined seasonally. For 1999 to 2012, the hiatus in surface warming is mainly evident in the central and eastern Pacific. It is manifested as strong anomalous easterly trade winds, distinctive sea-level pressure patterns, and large rainfall anomalies in the Pacific, which resemble the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These features are accompanied by upper tropospheric teleconnection wave patterns that extend throughout the Pacific, to polar regions, and into the Atlantic. The extratropical features are particularly strong during winter. By using an idealized heating to force a comprehensive atmospheric model, the large negative anomalous latent heating associated with the observed deficit in central tropical Pacific rainfall is shown to be mainly responsible for the global quasi-stationary waves in the upper troposphere. The wave patterns in turn created persistent regional climate anomalies, increasing the odds of cold winters in Europe. Hence, tropical Pacific forcing of the atmosphere such as that associated with a negative phase of the PDO produces many of the pronounced atmospheric circulation anomalies observed globally during the hiatus.


  1. If five of these 54 excuses were true, then we would be able to safely say that CO2 is not the prime mover of climate change. Alarmists are in a fix and

  2. I think most skeptics would say yes, natural oscillations may explain the "pause". But, if so, they can explain the preceding increase, too. And, if they can explain even half of the preceding increase, then there is no cause for alarm.

  3. They are desperately looking for something to explain "The Hiatus", rather than simply considering that their models were flawed. It's worth noting that they didn't look at 54 different explanations for warming. They selected CO2 as the culprit, and proceeded to harvest the grant money.

  4. Perhaps capital letters get a higher weighting in algorithms used by John Cook?

  5. Is that of interest ?: The most pronounced shift in Pacific Decadal Oscillation took place during the clash between the United States and Japan in the Pacific from December 1942 to August 1945, says an abstract to AGU Fall Meeting ;
    Most of man made actions led to global warming and to climate change. It's our responsability and I think that some are trying to minimalize our past actions and to put them under a favorable light.