Observations confirm the Miskolczi theory of a saturated greenhouse effect

Data from the UK Met Office for the period 1973-2012 show a significant global decrease in relative humidity and a corresponding significant global increase of specific humidity. Climate models predict positive feedback from water vapor by incorrectly assuming that relative humidity remains constant with warming while specific humidity increases, repeatedly disproven by observations. 

The Miskolczi theory of a 'saturated greenhouse effect' instead predicts relative humidity will decrease to offset an increase in specific humidity, just as this Met Office data and other publications have demonstrated. The consequence of the Miskolczi theory is that additions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 to the atmosphere will not lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect nor increase in global temperature.

From the UK Met Office Blog:

Specific Humidity

There are widespread significant moistening trends across the globe, especially over the Tropics. These are less pervasive as the moistening trends shown for dewpoint temperature. They are very similar to trends in vapour pressure but not identical - for example, specific humidity drying over southern Africa is more widespread, limited to the western half and significant for two gridboxes. There are actually a few more gridboxes represented in vapour pressure compared to specific humidity - fewer stations were removed by the PHA process. Drying is apparent over SW USA, the sourthern two-thirds of South America, southwestern Africa, SE China , New Zealand and Australia. Other spots occur in southern Africa, Pacific Islands, SE USA, Alaska and Central America. (Figure 9)

Moistening is signifcant for the Northern Hemisphere, the Tropics and the globe as a whole but with no significant trend apparent in the Southern Hemisphere. The signal is largest over the Tropics. (Figure 10)


Figure 9 Decadal trends in monthly mean SPECIFIC HUMIDITY from 1973 to 2012. Trends are fitted by the median of pairwise slopes. Where both the 5th and 95th percentiles of the slopes are on the same side of zero a trend is considered to be significant, this is identified by a black dot.


Figure 10 Large scale area average (cosine(latitude) weighted) monthly mean anomaly time series for SPECIFIC HUMIDITY from 1973 to 2012, relative to a 1976-2005 climatology period with decadal trends shown. Trends are fitted using the median of pairwise slopes and the 5th and 95th percentile slopes are shown as confidence intervals. 

Relative Humidity

There are widespread significant decreasing trends in relative humidity across the globe, especially over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. This may be referred to as drying which is confusing when all other moisture variables show moistening. However, this relative drying is consistent with rising temperatures and rising absolute moisture levels if water vapour is increasing at a slower rate than temperature. The relative drying shown here is far more regional in pattern, with considerably large areas of significant relative moistening also shown - where water vapour content is increasing at a faster rate than temperature. Notable regions becoming more saturated are India, Central America, the Pacific Islands, NE North America, southeaster Africa, SW Asia and northern Asia. (Figure11)

Relative drying is significant for both Hemispheres and the globe as a whole but with no significant trend apparent in the Tropics. The signal is largest over the Northern Hemisphere. (Figure 10)


Figure 11 Decadal trends in monthly mean RELATIVE HUMIDITY from 1973 to 2012. Trends are fitted by the median of pairwise slopes. Where both the 5th and 95th percentiles of the slopes are on the same side of zero a trend is considered to be significant, this is identified by a black dot.

Figure 12 Large scale area average (cosine(latitude) weighted) monthly mean anomaly time series for RELATIVE HUMIDITY from 1973 to 2012, relative to a 1976-2005 climatology period with decadal trends shown. Trends are fitted using the median of pairwise slopes and the 5th and 95th percentile slopes are shown as confidence intervals.