Monday, February 3, 2014

The last refuge of anthropogenic global warming theory fails to stand up to scrutiny

Reblogged from ICECAP:
Looking at the latest refuge of AGW theory that fails data scrutiny

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM   2/3/14

AMS is meeting in Atlanta this week as the north gets buried in snow and cold continues. The academics though still are pushing their agenda making the meeting uncomfortable for those who don’t buy into the scam. Many skeptics have left the society. Many like me remain because we have earned a CCM, a Broadcast Seal or CBM, designation as a Fellow. We will prevail.

For 19 going on 20 years, global warming has stopped. Cooling has replaced warming in winters during that same period for the CONUS - we will update after this year for 20 years). Using projected February anomalies and anomalies to date it will rise to -1.25F/decade cooling for the last 20 winters.

This has been true even as CO2 has risen 9.7%. In Europe and in places elsewhere including the US, the green agenda has led to harmful increases in the cost of energy or energy shortages, as winters have trended colder and snowier. This has falsified the climate models and assessments which had accelerated warming and snowless winters.

In the United States, the number of high heat extremes have been declining since the 1930s. 23 of the 50 state all time heat records occurred in the 1930s and 39 before 1960. More cold than heat extremes have been set since the 1940s. The claims to high temperature months and years is with "adjusted" (manipulated) data. The actual heat and cold records are unadjusted.

The tropical heat build-up in the atmosphere and oceans, one of the key outputs in ALL the climate models, has not been seen in the weather balloon, satellite data, or the dense ocean buoys used to track El Nino and La Ninas down to 300 meters depth, in the last 3 to 5 decades or 2000m in the ARGO buoy data since its implementation in 2004.

Sea level rise has slowed dramatically from the 20th century, and there is no upward trend in incidents of droughts and floods. Hurricane activity globally is at a 34 year low. "Superstorm" Sandy was a borderline Category 1 storm. Eight Category 3 or greater storms hit the Atlantic coast from 1938 to 1960. The total tornado count this year was over 140 incidences less since records started in 1953. The number of wildfires are the lowest since modern records began in 1985.

The arctic ice cover bounced back over 50% with one of the coldest arctic summers on record while new records for ice were set in Antarctica, even trapping a research ship this past month, during the Antarctic summer.

Snow was supposed to become increasingly rare. Instead as this week will reinforce, it is increasing. 4 of the top 5 snowiest years for the northern hemisphere have been in the last 6 years. In just 4 years, we have had more east coast snowstorms this decade than any in history.

The great physicist Richard Feynman said not matter how smart you are, who you are or how beautiful your theory, if data doesn't support your theory, it is wrong. Einstein noted a model or a hypothesis cannot "prove" anything. But data can invalidate a hypothesis or model. Einstein described the "Key" to science well when he said: "The case is never closed." "Many experiments may prove me right but it takes only one to prove me wrong."

In the case of global warming, we have many examples proving it wrong, but with the political motivation of heavy funding, exceeding $79B the last decade, data is ignored with claims of a consensus. Dr. Michael Crichton wrote "Historically the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is settled."

By claiming both sides of every weather extreme (warm or cold, drought or flood, no now or too much snow), they have created an unfalsifiable hypothesis. They want you to believe every weather event proves their hypothesis. The most recent example is the controversy over the "polar vortex". Though this is a common phenomenon, somewhere around the hemisphere most every winter, and has occurred in the United States often in the cold decades, as well as the last decade, they believe they can convince you that (You and your SUV are responsible).

This weekend, I enjoyed meeting with a friend (PhD climatologist) from the Weather Company (TWC etal). Some outspoken TWC mets have convinced themselves that AGW is real because of the extremes (which in reality have not increased as discussed above) and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in recent years they relate to the arctic warming and melting of arctic ice which has resulted in inconvenient colder winters in varying parts of the northern hemisphere.

My friend told them they need to look further back in time. He is absolutely right. The arctic ice and warming relates to the AMO, and warming and melting happened before when the AMO was last in its warm mode from the 40s to 60s when winter turned colder and blockiness increased.

The University of Alaska at Fairbanks shows how warmer Atlantic waters make their way into the arctic increasing ice melt (from the bottom) and air temperatures.


It appears also influenced by the geomagnetic solar activity.

Our quiet sun in recent years and reduced geomagnetic Ap aligns with a declining NAO much as we have seen in similar circumstances in the past.


  1. A Hypotheses is only one possible explanation for some observations in the real world. The hypotheses can only be meaningful when it is tested and the results match both the original and the projections based on the hypotheses. The hypotheses of the greenhouse gas effect has never been able to be tested and match the results expected.Thus the hypotheses is falsified. The greenhouse gas effect does not exist- therefore using the term "greenhouse gases" is false.
    Almost everyone says that because certain gases have been proven to absorb IR radiation especially CO2, Methane and a few thousand other gas that the effect exists, however not one of the other features can be demonstrated.
    There are both experiments and examinations of the laws of physics and thermodynamics that prove that the greenhouse gas effect can not happen. Therefore greenhouse gases do not exist, what does exists is IR absorbing gases.
    here are a few references to back up this position. Many more are available.
    List of references:
    The paper "Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effect within the frame of physics" by Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner is an in-depth examination of the subject. Version 4 2009
    Electronic version of an article published as International Journal of Modern Physics
    B, Vol. 23, No. 3 (2009) 275{364 , DOI No: 10.1142/S021797920904984X, c World
    Scientific Publishing Company,
    Report of Alan Carlin of US-EPA March, 2009 that shows that CO2 does not cause global warming.

    Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis Violates Fundamentals of Physics” by Dipl-Ing Heinz Thieme This work has about 10 or 12 link
    that support the truth that the greenhouse gas effect is a hoax.
    from the London, Edinborough and Dublin Philosophical Magazine , 1909, vol 17, p319-320. Cambridge UL shelf mark p340.1.c.95, i
    The Hidden Flaw in Greenhouse Theory
    By Alan Siddons
    from: at March 01, 2010 - 09:10:34 AM CST

    The below information was a foot note in the IPCC 4 edition. It is obvious that there was no evidence to prove that the ghg effect exists.

    “In the 1860s, physicist John Tyndall recognized the Earth's natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in the atmospheric composition could bring about climatic variations. In 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius first speculated that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.”

    After 1909 when R.W.Wood proved that the understanding of the greenhouse effect was in error and the ghg effect does not exist. After Niels Bohr published his work and receive a Nobel Prize in Physics in 1922. The fantasy of the greenhouse gas effect should have died in 1909 and 1922. Since then it has been shown by several physicists that the concept is a Violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

    Obviously the politicians don’t give a dam that they are lying. It fits in with what they do every hour of every day .Especially the current pretend president.
    Paraphrasing Albert Einstein after the Publishing of “The Theory of Relativity” –one fact out does 1 million “scientist, 10 billion politicians and 20 billion environmental whachos-that don’t know what” The Second Law of thermodynamics” is.

    1. Of course, you are correct in every detail. You will be pilloried by the ignoratti, of course!:]

    2. Second Law requires a closed system, which the Earth clearly is not. This is a commonly misunderstood Law which is also often misused to disprove other things, like evolution.

    3. "Second Law requires a closed system"

      This is a completely bogus argument and here's why:

  2. ILEUniversity of Pennsylvania Law School
    A Joint Research Center of the Law School, the Wharton School,
    and the Department of Economics in the School of Arts and Sciences
    at the University of Pennsylvania
    Global Warming Advocacy Science: a Cross Examination
    Jason Scott Johnston
    May 2010
    This paper can be downloaded without charge from the
    Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection:
    Israeli Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv: 'There is no direct evidence showing that CO2 caused 20th century warming, or as a matter of fact, any warming' link to this paper on climate depot.
    Slaying the Sky Dragon - Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory [Kindle Edition]
    Tim Ball (Author), Claes Johnson (Author), Martin Hertzberg (Author), Joseph A. Olson (Author), Alan Siddons (Author), Charles Anderson (Author), Hans Schreuder (Author), John O'Sullivan (Author)

    Israeli Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv: 'There is no direct evidence showing that CO2 caused 20th century warming, or as a matter of fact, any warming' link to this paper on climate depot
    Web- site references: Ponder the Maunder
    The Great Climate Clash -archives December, 2010 , G3 The greenhouse gas effect does not exist.( peer reviewed and revised but not yet released).
    Wood is correct: There is no Greenhouse Effect
    Posted on July 19, 2011 by Dr. Ed
    Repeatability of Professor Robert W. Wood’s 1909 experiment on the Theory of the Greenhouse (Summary by Ed Berry. Full report here or here. & PolyMontana.)
    by Nasif S. Nahle, June 12, 2011
    University Professor, Scientific Research Director at Biology Cabinet® San Nicolas de los Garza, N. L., Mexico. Water Absorption Spectrum by Martin Chaplin

    many others are available.
    The bottom line is that the facts show that the greenhouse gas effect is a fairy-tale and that Man-made global warming is the World larges Scam!!!The IPCC and Al Gore should be charged under the US Anti-racketeering act and when convicted - they should spend the rest of their lives in jail for the Crimes they have committed against Humanity.

    Albert Einstein once said, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Einstein’s words express a foundational principle of science intoned by the logician, Karl Popper: Falsifiability. In order to verify a hypothesis there must be a test by which it can be proved false. A thousand observations may appear to verify a hypothesis, but one critical failure could result in its demise. The history of science is littered with such examples.
    The only thing more dangerous than ignorance is arrogance."
    —Albert Einstein
    "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for dinner. Liberty is a well-armed lamb." Benjamin Franklin

  3. There is an experiment that proves that the Greenhouse gas effect does not exist. This experiment which has been technologically reviewed by Ph. D physicists . Ph. D. Chemical engineers and others Ph. D’s in other fields The experiment is found on the web-site http:// click on the blog tab then on page 3 of 12. . It is titled "The Experiment that failed which can save the world trillions-Proving the greenhouse gas effect does not exist” replaced by the following web-site: This web-site is being up-dated regularly with pertinent articles about the real science of the atmosphere.

    The Greenhouse Effect ExploredWritten by Carl Brehmer | 26 May 2012
    Is “Water Vapor Feedback” Positive or Negative?
    Exploiting the medium of Youtube Carl Brehmer is drawing wider attention to a fascinating experiment he performed to test the climatic impacts of water in our atmosphere.
    Carl explains, “An essential element of the “greenhouse effect” hypothesis is the positive “water vapor feedback” hypothesis. That is, if something causes an increase in the temperature this will cause an increase in the evaporation of water into water vapor.” The experiment shows that when there is more evaporation the atmosphere is colder.( This experiment proves that GHGE by the AGW is wrong)

  4. Thanks to Joe D'Aleo for speaking up and all fellow "deniers" for posting links to it. Thanks also to Bertholh Klein for supplementary documentation links and reasoning to show that the magical greenhouse effect does not exist. There is one extra ingredient in all this climate hype and pseudo-scientific reasoning by climate alarmists and many a sceptic alike about the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide: carbon dioxide can only cool the atmosphere, it can never make it warmer. Some quote the first law of thermo, conveniently forgetting that sending energy back to its source can not possibly increase the temperature of that source - if that was not so, engineers would have long ago designed equipment that delivered more power than the input allows for. So never mind that nothing in Nature is 100% efficient, quoting that first law with regards carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is supposed to increase efficiency above 100%, quite some feat! So much for many sceptics sticking to the unproven muttering that "some warming is undoubtedly due to carbon dioxide." No evidence offered, never witnessed in the open, yet they continue with that line. Back to the important bit: carbon dioxide in the open atmosphere will cool that atmosphere, however little of course, as it is after all only 400 parts per million parts of air, so the effect can not be perceived, but "some warming" is most definitely not the case. For a detailed analysis of the reasoning see

  5. The sad reality with the AGW crowd is that anyone who dare question their "science" is a crackpot, who is in denial of "the real data" proving their theory to be "the undeniable truth". The entire AGW theory left the realm science years ago when the likes of James Hansen hi-jacked it with his extremists views. (Note is said views since, nothing this man has ever done is based on sound science). The entire AGW camp, in my mind, followed Hansen straight down the religious cult path, where only true believers are welcome. Keep up the good work Joseph, facts and time will eventually win out over this contrived myth.

    1. It isn't "religion" driving it but radical leftist political culture.

  6. Getting cooler? AGW is even more diabolical, twisted, and evil than we realized. Ditch that SUV and send more money NOW!!!

  7. great article by Joe D'Aleo and excellent comments from Berthold Klein and others. Thanks to Hockeyschtick for posting climate realism.