Meteorologist explains extreme weather was worse in the past & the problems with computer models

"If I have a hard time predicting the weather seven days out, how are we going to forecast accurately what's going to happen fifty to a hundred years from now?"

He also interviews Lawrence Gould, professor of physics, University of Hartford, who is critical of climate models. 



Transcript:

I honestly believe there's no computer model or forecaster on the planet that can make an accurate long-term prediction on exactly when the next blockbuster storm will strike or if the strong storms will become more frequent. After all we've already seen alarming climate predictions go astray. 

"There are no climate models that have gotten the the global temperature correct."  Lawrence Gould is professor of physics at the University of Hartford and he's been researching global climate change for eight years.  He says real observations prove the forty four computer models that predict temperatures are not that accurate. While they predict warming, global temperatures have actually remained steady or have even cooled the last fifteen years. "You look at the observations and that would indicate that the models have to be corrected." 

The bottom line is over the last one hundred eight years of recordkeeping here in Connecticut we've seen a lot of fluctuations with the severity of storms and in the range of temperatures. As recently as the 1970's we were concerned about cooling, now we've seen some very warm years in Connecticut. Last year was the warmest year on record in our state and two thousand ten was the second warmest, but so far this year has been relatively cool, but to confirm a long-term trend one way or the other we have to see decades more data. 

The bottom line is, if I have a hard time predicting the weather seven days out, how are we going to forecast accurately what's going to happen fifty to a hundred years from now? Very difficult.