Monday, May 13, 2013

Professors Vahrenholt & Lüning: Three new papers that reject IPCC disaster scenarios

German professors & authors of "The Cold Sun" on the false alarm over alleged man-made global warming: "A historic science mistake has taken its course..."

Evidence of lower CO2 climate sensitivities condense: Three new papers reject the IPCC disaster scenarios

Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt  and Dr. Sebastian Lüning, authors of "The Cold Sun"
[Google translation + editing]: When temperatures shot up like a rocket from 1977-1998, climate researchers were amazed. That's a real smoking gun, this CO2, with such powerful and extremely potent effects on climate. Without further ado, some thought the CO2 accounted for almost the entire warming of about half a degree. Per doubling of CO2, the temperature should be driven upward by 2.0-4.5 ° C [the so-called climate sensitivity]. However, only one thing had been overlooked in the whole euphoria - that there may be natural factors that have contributed to this warming: The sun peaked in the 1980's-1990's at one of the strongest intensities of the last 10,000 years. And the 60-year [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] ocean cycle was moving at this time in the warm phase. A historic science mistake took its course ...
Now, after 15 years of no warming it gradually dawns on some researchers that there probably is something wrong. Almost monthly at the moment we see new work, that our estimate of the  (climate sensitivity) is now correct and the climate impact of CO2 has decreased (see our blog article " Reduced climate impact of CO2 will obtain more supporters in Science " and " The avalanche rolls on: Norwegian Research Authority comes from a heavy reduced climate impact of CO2 "). As published in April 2013 in the Journal of Climate , a new study by Nicholas Lewis, who calculated a CO2 climate sensitivity due to the available data, which is only about half as large as currently assumed by the IPCC. According to Lewis, the temperature rises by only 1.1-2.2 ° C per doubling of CO2 (1.0-3.0 ° C taking into account other uncertainties).
In the same month, appeared in the journal Climate Dynamics , a new work by Troy Masters, the specific CO2 climate sensitivity based on the oceanic heat content. Masters compared the measured values ​​with the latest generation of climate models, such as those used in the nascent new IPCC climate report. It was found that the climate models respond much too sensitive to CO2. Masters identified a likely range of 1.5-2.9 ° C per doubling of CO2. These values ​​are also significantly lower than the current IPCC assumptions.
By the end of 2012 published by a research group from the University of Illinois to Michael Ring in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences , a new study in which they examined the temperature data for the last 160 years using two independent methods, and from this they obtained CO2 climate sensitivity. Based on a spectral analysis and climate modeling, Ring and colleagues found a CO2 air effect that moves to the bottom edge of the previous IPCC assumptions, namely of 1.5-2.0 ° C per doubling of CO2. The pdf of this work is freely downloadable, as it has appeared on a free 'Open Access' journal.
In our book, "The cold sun", we present two climate scenarios based on climate sensitivities of 1.0 and 1.5 ° C per doubling of CO2. At the time of publication in February 2012, it has hailed from the German media landscape still plenty of criticism for these assumptions. How can you only deviate so much from the values ​​of the IPCC? Today, nearly one and a half years later that seems in the book presented 1.5 ° C climate sensitivity scenario to have arrived in the emerging mainstream of climate research. How times change ...
Below is a graphical representation of recent climate sensitivity provisions compared to the exaggerated IPCC assumptions (Source: Pat Michaels & Paul Knappenberger, WUWT ).
Note: In addition to the papers mentioned above, there are many others which indicate much lower climate sensitivities than claimed by the IPCC.