Saturday, June 1, 2013

Climatologist Dr. John Christy: Climate Change Overview in Six Slides

Reblogged from, with PDF files converted for readability:
Yesterday, Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) hosted a climate change conference in a technology park in Fairmont, W.Va.
A mixed panel of warmistas and skeptics featured Marc Marano of Climate Depot, Scott Denning of Colorado State University, Jim Hurrell of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Joe Casola of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Annie Petsonk of Environmental Defense Fund, Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Dennis Avery of the Hudson Institute, and John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, who participated by satellite link.
I emailed Dr. Christy and asked for permission to post his presentation on GlobalWarming.Org; he promptly sent me the files.
Dr. Christy’s Power Point presentation is available here. The accompanying text is available here. The main takeaway points:
  • Popular scare stories that weather extremes – hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods — are getting worse are not based on fact.
  • In the U.S., high temperature records are not becoming more numerous.
  • Climate models significantly overestimated warming during the past 15 years.
  • Even if climate models were correct, a 50% reduction in U.S. CO2 emissions by 2050 would avert only 0.07°C of warming by 2100.
  • If a policy is not economically sustainable, it’s not politically sustainable.
  • The climate change impact of enhancing CO2 concentrations has so far been small compared to the public health and biospheric benefits provided by affordable, carbon-based energy.
30 May 2013 Written testimony of John Christy:

Congressman McKinley, panelists and guests, thank 
you for allowing me to appear via the internet. Going 
to the next slide.

The first point I want to make is that popular scare 
stories of weather extremes getting worse are not 
based on fact. In the upper left, tornadoes are not 
increasing. In the lower left, hurricanes are not 
increasing. In the upper right, snow cover is not 
disappearing, in the lower right, droughts and floods 
continue to happen as they always have. 

Next. What about record high temperatures in the 
U.S.? This chart shows that 2012 had quite a few, but 
hardly the most. Indeed a careful look shows a 
downward trend. High temperature records are not 
becoming more numerous.

Next. What about climate model projections? The red 
line shows the temperature response to greenhouse 
gases that the very latest models indicate should be 
clearly evident - the tropical atmosphere is supposed to 
be rapidly warming. The green and blue lines show 
what the real world has done. The models are 
significantly wrong compared with the real world in 
this signature quantity.

Next. Let’s suppose for a brief moment that the 
models are correct. The red line here shows global 
temperatures over the next 100 years. The harsh 
policy that congress considered four years ago of 
drastically reducing CO2 emissions would have the 
effect seen in the green and blue lines – in other 
words, no detectable impact. Energy costs would soar 
without any benefit.

Next. As State Climatologist I work on many economic 
development issues, including legislation to take 
advantage of Alabama’s climate resources. One thing I 
know about this area is that if an idea is not 
economically sustainable, in the long run, it is not 
sustainable no matter its other intentions.

Next – Finally. Affordable energy is the basis for our 
standard of living today. Energy comes from the green box 
here, mostly from carbon. The benefits of energy 
are in the blue box, and who doesn’t want long life, 
progress, plentiful food and so on. 

The lower green box shows the physical consequences 
of carbon-based energy production – invigorated 
biosphere, increased food production and the debated 
climate impact. The evidence I’ve presented shows 
the climate impact of enhancing the concentration of
CO2 is not much. 

However, I’m quite certain that making energy more 
expensive will cause the results of energy in the blue 
box to become more expensive and therefore more 
scarce. I’ve lived in Africa and can assure you that 
without energy, life is brutal and short. We are not 
evil people for emitting CO2, we are good people 
because we recognize the direct and powerful benefits 
to human life that carbon-based energy supplies. With 
that I’ll close, thank you.


  1. Climate is inherently unpredictable, only stochastic methods should be used

  2. I have been asked what the source is for the graph on NH snow cover. After searching far and wide, I am unable to locate the source for the graph. This is as close as I have come:
    There is a thank you to a meteorologist for the graphs.
    Can you tell me the source of the graphs and the data that was input into the graphs. I am told that this does not match Rutger's information. Without knowing where the graph came from, I am unable to answer questions about why the two sources do not seem to agree.
    Thank you.

    1. I suggest you contact for the source data

    2. Will do. Thanks.

    3. I have used data from from Rudgers University. Winter is defined as the months of October, November, December this year plus January, February and March of the following year:

      If you do not believe in my graphs, you can finde similar Graphs her:

  3. John Christy is misrepresenting the climate sience. Please look at the following link for the arguments:

    Dr. John Christy is a highly qualified scientist. I am sure that he knows the literature of climate science and is more than competent to read, to interpret and explain this to the public. It is a surprise to me that he does not appear to give the complete picture of the subjects. He is misrepresenting the climate science. This is disappointing: He owes us a better effort.

    1. False, I looked at your pathetic 'arguments' and every one of them was either false or misrepresenting Christy.