"In this paper, 20 different research groups explored the causes of 16 different events that occurred in 2013.The findings indicate that human-caused climate change greatly increased the risk for the extreme heat waves assessed in this report. How human influence affected other types of events such as droughts, heavy rain events, and storms was less clear, indicating that natural variability likely played a much larger role in these extremes."Thus, as noted today on twitter by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr, "the bottom line on this new NOAA special report: If you are attributing any extreme other than heat waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change, you are on weak (or worse) scientific ground."
Further, is it possible to determine how much warming to attribute to natural warming recovery since the Little Ice Age vs. possible anthropogenic change? This paper cites the IPCC report and claim that "most" of the warming since 1950 is anthropogenic. However, this is the false attribution assumption and is thus used as the underlying basis for blaming some of the heat waves of 2013 on man-made emissions of CO2.
How can they then explain why the most extreme US heat waves by far occurred during the low-CO2 1930's?
Of course, none of this science stops our favorite Associated Press propagandist Seth Borenstein from spinning this study as
Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather
WASHINGTON -- Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.
Researchers found that climate change increased the odds of nine extremes: Heat waves in Australia, Europe, China, Japan and Korea, intense rain in parts of the United States and India, and severe droughts in California and New Zealand.
Scientists couldn't find a global warming link to an early South Dakota blizzard, freak storms in Germany and the Pyrenees, heavy rain in Colorado, southern and central Europe, and a cold British spring....
By Stephanie C. Herring, Martin P. Hoerling, Thomas C. Peterson, and Peter A. Stott
ABSTRACT:
Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science
and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution.
In this paper, 20 different research groups explored
the causes of 16 different events that occurred in 2013.
The findings indicate that human-caused climate change
greatly increased the risk for the extreme heat waves
assessed in this report. How human influence affected
other types of events such as droughts, heavy rain events,
and storms was less clear, indicating that natural variability
likely played a much larger role in these extremes.
Multiple groups chose to look at both the Australian heat
waves and the California drought, providing an opportunity
to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses
of various methodologies. There was considerable
agreement about the role anthropogenic climate change
played in the events between the different assessments.
This year three analyses were of severe storms and none
found an anthropogenic signal. However, attribution assessments
of these types of events pose unique challenges
due to the often limited observational record. When
human-influence for an event is not identified with the
scientific tools available to us today, this means that if
there is a human contribution, it cannot be distinguished
from natural climate variability.
Paleo-evidence that extreme weather has not increased [use google translate]:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=20791