"nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes [of different signs and amplitudes], even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing."...a damning critique of IPCC climate models and projections, which basically admits the models cannot be used to predict regional climate change with any confidence. It also implies that the models cannot be used to predict extreme weather or precipitation.
Further, the "nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics" is also incorrect to claim that there should be confidence in model thermodynamics, because the models are not based on the "basic physics" of thermodynamics, and consist almost entirely of parameterizations/fudge factors which are unable to properly simulate the fundamental thermodynamic aspects of convection, chaotic turbulence, clouds, solar amplification mechanisms, etc which greatly affect surface temperature.
In addition, a vote of no confidence on model thermodynamics is warranted due to violating the second law of thermodynamics with respect to simulating conventional turbulent heat flow, one of the most important mechanisms of heat transfer in the atmosphere.
Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
Theodore G. Shepherd
Nature Geoscience (2014) doi:10.1038/ngeo2253 Received 20 May 2014 Accepted 20 August 2014 Published online 21 September 2014