Tuesday, March 30, 2010

More Evidence IPCC Models are Inadequate

The IPCC models place an unjustified and almost total reliance upon CO2 as the driver of climate, while ignoring ocean oscillations. Strange that a model of heat transfer would ignore the huge periodic oscillations of the reservoir of over 99% of the earth's heat content. A recent paper: Masahiro Ohashi and H. L. Tanaka, 2010: Vol. 6A (2010) : Data Analysis of Recent Warming Pattern in the Arctic. Special Edition -Special Edition of the Fourth Japan China Korea Joint Conference on Meteorology- p.1-4 is the subject of a highly recommended guest post at Roger Pielke Sr.'s Blog today. The article finds that most of the recent warming 1970-1990 in the arctic is a result of the natural variability of the Arctic Oscillation [AO] rather than the IPCC model explanation of anthropogenic global warming. From the abstract of the paper: "Since the decadal variation of the AO is recognized as the natural variability of the global atmosphere, it is shown that both of decadal variabilities before and after 1989 in the Arctic can be mostly explained by the natural variability of the AO not by the external response due to the human activity". On Dr. Pielke's blog posting, the author of the paper, Dr. Masahiro Ohashi, notes the implications of this work:

According to our result, the rapid warming during 1970-1990 contains a large fraction of unpredictable natural variability due to the AO. The subsequent period of 1990-2010 indicates a clear trend of the AO to be negative. The global warming has been stopped by natural variability superimposed on the gentle anthropogenic global warming. The important point is that the IPCC models have been tuned perfectly to fit the rapid warming during 1970-1990 by means of the ice-albedo feedback (anthropogenic forcing) which is not actually observed. IPCC models are justified with this wrong scientific basis and are applied to project the future global warming for 100 years in the future. Hence, we warn that the IPCC models overestimate the warming trend due to the mislead Arctic Oscillation.

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